Since scientific research is mostly driven by public funds and its translation impacts societies, how the lay public sees science and scientists have been subjects of pertinent interest. However an interesting paradox can be observed: the rise in science communication and outreach efforts seems to correlate with the rise of openly anti-science groups, leading to fears of a “post- truth” society. We propose a new testable and theoretical model, to understand how knowledge and confidence play a role in determining public attitudes towards science and discuss how this can inform science communication. We used The Science and Technology Eurobarometer surveys, from 1998 to 2005, in 34 European countries, comprising 84000 individual interviews, that contains a set of variables gauging, attitudes and knowledge about science. We created a new variable, an indirect measure of confidence and found that public attitudes towards science vary both with knowledge and confidence, in a nonlinear way. As confidence in one’s knowledge grows faster than knowledge itself (Dunning-Kruger Effect), the least positive attitudes are observed in an average knowledge but high confidence group. This corresponds to the majority of the population, across countries, years, education levels and age, and has implications for science communication and policy. Interesting and consistent differences are observed between genders and in different countries.
